Development of a simple statistical method for wintertime PM prediction in Korea

Abstract:

Particulate matter (PM) is one of the major air pollutants, affecting human health and climate. PM10 concentrations in Korea have gradually decreased over the past owing to the domestic air quality policy, but show an increasing trend in the recent years. In this study, we examine possible reasons for the recent trend, particularly focusing on winter when PM10 concentrations are highest among other seasons in Korea. We used the observed monthly mean PM10 concentrations at National Institute of Environment Research sites in Korea and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications reanalysis data for the past 15 years to find the meteorological factors that affect the wintertime PM10 concentrations. Among various meteorological variables, changes in surface pressures over Siberia and temperatures in East Asia are significantly correlated with the variability of wintertime PM10 concentrations in Korea. We then use analyzed statistical relationship between meteorological factors and wintertime PM10 concentrations of Korea to develop a seasonal PM10 forecast system. Detailed explanation and evaluation of our forecast system will be presented in this study.