Icing detection from geostationary satellite data using machine learning approaches

Abstract:

Icing can cause a significant structural damage to aircraft during flight, resulting in various aviation accidents. Icing studies have been typically performed using two approaches: one is a numerical model-based approach and the other is a remote sensing-based approach. The model based approach diagnoses aircraft icing using numerical atmospheric parameters such as temperature, relative humidity, and vertical thermodynamic structure. This approach tends to over-estimate icing according to the literature. The remote sensing-based approach typically uses meteorological satellite/ground sensor data such as Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) and Dual-Polarization radar data. This approach detects icing areas by applying thresholds to parameters such as liquid water path and cloud optical thickness derived from remote sensing data. In this study, we propose an aircraft icing detection approach which optimizes thresholds for L1B bands and/or Cloud Optical Thickness (COT) from Communication, Ocean and Meteorological Satellite-Meteorological Imager (COMS MI) and newly launched Himawari-8 Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) over East Asia. The proposed approach uses machine learning algorithms including decision trees (DT) and random forest (RF) for optimizing thresholds of L1B data and/or COT. Pilot Reports (PIREPs) from South Korea and Japan were used as icing reference data. Results show that RF produced a lower false alarm rate (1.5%) and a higher overall accuracy (98.8%) than DT (8.5% and 75.3%), respectively. The RF-based approach was also compared with the existing COMS MI and GOES-R icing mask algorithms. The agreements of the proposed approach with the existing two algorithms were 89.2% and 45.5%, respectively. The lower agreement with the GOES-R algorithm was possibly due to the high uncertainty of the cloud phase product from COMS MI.