El Nino, from 1870 to 2014, and other Atmospheric Circulation Forcing by Extreme Apparitions of the Eight Annual, Continental Scale, Aerosol Plumes in the Satellite Era which Point to a Possible Cause for the Current Californian Drought

Abstract:

Eight continental scale aerosol plumes exist each year as the enclosed image shows. Apparitions of seven plumes only exist for a few months in the same season each year whilst the East Asian Plume is visible all year. The aerosol optical depth (AOD) of all the plumes varies enormously interannually with two studies showing the surface radiative forcing of the South East Asian Plume (SEAP) as -150W/m² and -286W/m²/AOD.

I show that the SEAP, created by volcanic aerosols (natural) and biomass burning and gas flares in the oil industry (anthropogenic), is the sole cause of all El Nino events, the greatest interannual perturbation of the atmospheric circulation system. The SEAP creates an El Nino by absorbing solar radiation at the top of the plume which heats the upper atmosphere and cools the surface. This creates a temperature inversion compared to periods without the plume and reduces convection. With reduced convection in SE Asia, the Maritime Continent, the Trade Winds blowing across the Pacific are forced to relax as their exit into the Hadley and Walker Cells is constrained and the reduced Trade Wind speed causes the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) to rise in the central tropical Pacific Ocean as there is a strong negative correlation between wind speed and SST. The warmer SST in the central Pacific creates convection in the region which further reduces the Trade Wind speed and causes the Walker Cell to reverse – a classic El Nino.

Having established the ability of such extreme aerosol plumes to create El Nino events I will then show how the South American, West African, Middle East and SEAP plumes create drought in the Amazon, Spain, Darfur and Australia as well as causing the extremely warm autumn and winter in Europe in 2006-07.

All these effects are created by the plumes reducing convection in the region of the plume which forces the regional Hadley Cells into anomalous positions thereby creating persistent high pressure cells in the mid latitudes. This perturbs the mid latitude storm tracks and creates persistent high and low pressure regions around the World at those latitudes giving rise to extreme events by causing the regional winds to blow persistently from one direction.

Finally I will suggest which plumes may be causing the high pressure ridge in the NE Pacific which is causing the severe drought in California.