Prediction of Geomagnetic Storm Strength from Inner Heliospheric In Situ Observations

Abstract:

In order to predict the effects of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) on Earth, it is important to know the properties of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). Of special interest is the southward component (Bz) of the IMF, acting as a main driver for geomagnetic storms. We are working on a proof-of-concept for predicting the strength of geomagnetic storms caused by ICMEs by using in situ data from spacecraft in the inner heliosphere. Our prediction includes the arrival time and speed of the ICME at Earth, the IMF's Bz component and the resulting disturbance storm time index (Dst), which is a prime indicator of geomagnetic activity.
For Dst forecasting, the two well established models Burton et al. (1975) and O'Brien & McPherron (2000) are used. Necessary parameters for those models are the ICME speed and the Bz component of the IMF at 1 AU. We obtain the ICME speed using a drag-based model, and the IMF's Bz component is predicted based on a power law from the in situ data. Additionally, the ENLIL/WSA model provides the solar wind background speed for the drag-based model.
An advantage of our method is the use of the in situ spacecraft as a reference point for the drag based-model, leading to a more precise arrival speed of the ICME at Earth, and an improved arrival time. Investigation of an ICME in June 2012 shows already very promising results for the Dst index, as well as for the ICME arrival speed. The main advantage of this method is the prediction lead time of ~21 hours compared to only ~40-60 minutes, using an L1 located spacecraft. Furthermore, the feasibility of this method can be studied with any in situ spacecraft temporarily located between the Sun and Earth, like Helios, Solar Orbiter or Solar Probe Plus, and also works for radial spacecraft alignments. The techniques we develop could be routinely applied to a mission that forms an artificial Lagrange point along the Sun-Earth line, e.g. for a Sunjammer or Heliostorm mission.