Trends in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) associated with urban development in arctic and subarctic Western Siberia

Abstract:

Changes in normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in the high Arctic have been reliably documented, with widespread “greening” (increase in NDVI), specifically along the northern rim of Eurasia and Alaska. Whereas in West Siberia south of 65N, widespread “browning” (decrease in NDVI) has been noted, although the causes remain largely unclear. In this study we report results of statistical analysis of the spatial and temporal changes in NDVI around 28 major urban areas in the arctic and subarctic Western Siberia. Exploration and exploitation of oil and gas reserves has led to rapid industrialization and urban development in the region. This development has significant impact on the environment and particularly in the vegetation cover in and around the urbanized areas. The analysis is based on 15 years (2000-2014) of high-resolution (250 m) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data acquired for summer months (June through August) over the entire arctic and subarctic Western Siberian region. The analysis shows that the NDVI background trends are generally in agreement with the trends reported in previous coarse-resolution NDVI studies. Our study reveals greening over the arctic (tundra and tundra-forest) part of the region. Simultaneously, the southern (boreal taiga forest) part is browning, with the more densely vegetation areas or areas with highest NDVI, particularly along Ob River showing strong negative trend.

The unexpected and interesting finding of the study is statistically robust indication of the accelerated increase of NDVI (“greening”) in the older urban areas. Many Siberian cities become greener even against the decrease in the NDVI background. Moreover, interannual variations of urban NDVI are not coherent with the NDVI background variability. We also find that in tundra zones, NDVI values are higher in a 5-10 km buffer zone around the city edge than in rural areas (40 km distance from the city edge), and in taiga in a 5-10 km buffer zone NDVI value are lower compare with rural zone. We speculate that the observed “greening” or “browning” around urban areas could be caused by the vegetation cover response to the anthropogenic urban heat island (UHI) effect. The general regional trend is amplified in very close proximity to the urban areas, possibly due to UHI effect.