The long-term seismic cycle in collisional margins: insights from Seismo-Thermo-Mechanical models

Abstract:

The April 25, 2015, Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake is the largest one in the Nepal Himalaya since 1934. Since the foreland part of it is densely populated, these events represent a considerable seismic hazard. The restricted direct observations in time and space in combination with tectonic and rheological complexities, however, pose a difficult problem for both seismic hazard assessment and modeling efforts. In this study we for the first time simulate cycles of spontaneous earthquake-like ruptures on non a-priori defined faults within a generic continental collision zone. We use the Seismo-Thermo-Mechanical (STM) numerical modeling approach, which is based on a continuum, viscoelastoplastic code I2ELVIS and is validated for seismic cycle applications against a laboratory model and natural observations (van Dinther et al., 2013a, b). The 2-D model setup consists of two continental plates separated by an oceanic plate, in which the incipient subduction phase is followed by continent-continent collision. In different collisional stages, we evaluate a non-associative Drucker-Prager plasticity yield criterion with pressure dependent yield strength and a strongly rate-dependent friction formulation. Our results show physically consistent emergence of complex rupture paths, both on- and off-main frontal thrust. Assuming different physical properties of tectonic nappes, we find that ruptures propagate following rheological or tectonic discontinuities. Our findings suggest that the interseismic coupling of the main-thrust affects the seismic cycle of the entire orogenic belt. While thrust-faulting events mainly occur on the main frontal thrust, normal-faulting events spread throughout the orogenic belt as a consequence of gravitational extension. Results from an event detection algorithm shows events in the deeper portions of the orogenic belt, both within the oceanic slab and near the bottom of the wedge where material is squeezed between stiff lithospheric mantle portions.