Assessing the Sensitivity of Satellite-Derived Estimates of Ice Sheet Mass Balance to Regional Climate Model Simulations of Snow Accumulation and Firn Compaction

Abstract:

Surface mass balance (SMB) estimates from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are fundamental for assessing and understanding ice sheet mass trends. Mass budget and altimetry assessments rely on RCMs both directly for estimates of the SMB contribution to the total mass trend, and indirectly for ancillary data in the form of firn compaction corrections. As such, mass balance assessments can be highly sensitive to RCM outputs and therefore their accuracy. Here we assess the extent to which geodetic measurements of mass balance are sensitive to RCM model outputs at different resolutions. We achieve this by comparing SMB dependent estimates of mass balance from the mass budget method and altimetry, with those from satellite gravimetry that are independent of SMB estimates. Using the outputs of the RACMO/ANT 2.3 model at 5.5 km and 27 km horizontal spatial resolution, we generate estimates of mass balance using the mass budget method and altimetry for the Western Palmer Land region of the Antarctic Peninsula between 2003 and 2014. We find a 19% increase in the long-term (1980 to 2014) mean annual SMB for the region when enhancing the model resolution to 5.5 km. This translates into an approximate 50% reduction in the total mass loss from 2003 to 2014 calculated with the mass budget method and a 15% increase in the altimetry estimate. The use of the enhanced resolution product leads to consistency between the estimates of mass loss from the altimetry and the mass budget method that is not observed with the coarser resolution product, in which estimates of cumulative mass fall beyond the relative errors. Critically, when using the 5.5 km product, we find excellent agreement, both in pattern and magnitude, with the independent estimate derived from gravimetry. Our results point toward the crucial need for high resolution SMB products from RCMs for mass balance assessments, particularly in regions of high mass turnover and complex terrain as found over the Antarctic Peninsula.