Assigning a Price to Radiative Forcing: Methods, Results, and Implications

Abstract:

Climate change mitigation frameworks have increasingly begun to include components that involve active management of the land surface. Predominantly, these programs focus on the sequestration of greenhouse gasses in vegetation and soils, generating offset credits for projects which demonstrate considerable storage. However, it is widely known that biogeophysical interactions between the land surface and the atmosphere, such as latent and sensible heat flux, albedo radiative forcing, and surface roughness, can in many cases outweigh the influence of greenhouse gas storage on global and local climate. Surface albedo, in particular, has attracted attention in the context of these frameworks because it has been shown to influence the overall climate benefits of high-latitude forest growth through tradeoffs between carbon sequestration and radiative forcing from seasonal snow cover albedo. Here we review a methodology for pricing albedo-related radiative forcing through the use of an integrated assessment model, present the results under several emissions and social preference scenarios, and describe the implications that this pricing methodology may have on forest land management in the Northeastern United States. Additionally, we investigate the consequences of projected decreased winter precipitation on the net climate benefits of snow albedo throughout the state of New Hampshire, USA.