Pollen reconstructions, tree-rings and early climate data from Minnesota, USA: a cautionary tale of bias and signal attentuation

Abstract:

High-resolution proxy reconstructions are essential to assess the rate and magnitude of anthropogenic global warming. High-resolution pollen records are being critically examined for the production of accurate climate reconstructions of the last millennium, often as extensions of tree-ring records. Past climate inference from a sedimentary pollen record depends upon the stationarity of the pollen-climate relationship. However, humans have directly altered vegetation, and hence modern pollen deposition is a product of landscape disturbance and climate, unlike in the past with its dominance of climate-derived processes. This could cause serious bias in pollen reconstructions.

In the US Midwest, direct human impacts have greatly altered the vegetation and pollen rain since Euro-American settlement in the mid-19^th century. Using instrumental climate data from the early 1800s from Fort Snelling (Minnesota), we assessed the bias from the conventional method of inferring climate from pollen assemblages in comparison to a calibration set from pre-settlement pollen assemblages and the earliest instrumental climate data. The pre-settlement calibration set provides more accurate reconstructions of 19^th century temperature than the modern set does. When both calibration sets are used to reconstruct temperatures since AD 1116 from a varve-dated pollen record from Lake Mina, Minnesota, the conventional method produces significant low-frequency (centennial-scale) signal attenuation and positive bias of 0.8-1.7 ^oC, resulting in an overestimation of Little Ice Age temperature and an underestimation of anthropogenic warming. We also compared the pollen-inferred moisture reconstruction to a four-century tree-ring-inferred moisture record from Minnesota and Dakotas, which shows that the tree-ring reconstruction is biased towards dry conditions and records wet periods relatively poorly, giving a false impression of regional aridity. The tree-ring chronology also suggests varve chronology problems.

It remains to be explored how widespread this landscape disturbance problem is when conventional pollen-based inference methods are used, and consequently how seriously regional manifestations of global warming might have been underestimated with traditional pollen-based techniques.