Spatial stabilization and intensification of moistening and drying rate patterns under future climate change

Abstract:

Most climate studies characterize the future climate change by considering the evolution between a fixed current baseline and the future. It emphasizes an increase of future precipitation changes with global warming. Here we use an alternative approach that considers rate of change indicators related to precipitation using projections of an ensemble of General Circulation Models. The rate is defined by the difference between two subsequent 20-year periods. This approach can be relevant to impacts affecting upcoming generations, and to their continuous adaptation towards a changing target. Under the strongest emission pathway (RCP8.5), moistening and drying rates strongly increase at the global scale. As we move further over the twenty-first century, more and more regions exhibit substantial rates. These regions are modified over time due to spatial variability of precipitation. However, we show that they tend to become more geographically stationary through the century, leading to persisting trends at several places over the globe. Whilst global warming is accelerating, this spatial stabilization is due to the decreasing relative influence of global circulation in precipitation changes compared to thermodynamic processes. In specific regions, the combination of intensification and persistence of such substantial rates should be considered in the framework of future impact studies (i.e. the Mediterranean Sea, Central America, South Asia and the Arctic). These trends are already visible in the current period, but could almost disappear if strong mitigation policies (RCP2.6) were quickly implemented.