Does the Atmosphere Precess?

Abstract:

The study considers a north-south pair of mid-latitude rings of atmospheric mass, symmetric with respect to the equator, and rotating with respect to the distant stars. The mass and angular velocity are assigned similar to the annual and zonal mean upper level westerlies. Their relatively rapid rotation is assumed to allow a rigid body approximation on long time and space scales. The rings are constrained to move as if rigidly connected to a common axis of rotation. The pair thus constitutes a symmetric top with a fixed pivot point at the center of mass. Analysis of the dynamics follows the classical mechanics approach used for precession of the equinoxes. The theoretical rate of precession for this highly idealized system yields a period on the order of decades. The predicted dynamics appears consistent with three prior studies of observational data: latitudinal movements of atmospheric circulation above far Southern Australia, latitudinal movements of ocean circulation in the Kuroshio Extension, and changes in global Atmospheric Angular Momentum before and after 1976. Each of these observational records indicates correlation with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The theoretical dynamics in combination with the observations suggests the axis of rotation of the atmospheric westerlies is offset from the Earth axis by a few degrees, and further, that this axis precesses around a mean axis on a time scale of a few decades.