Implications for sustainability of a changing agricultural mosaic in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California, USA

Abstract:

Transformed from the largest wetland system on the west coast of the United States to agriculture, the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta is an extreme teaching example of anthropogenic threats to sustainability. For over 6,000 years, over 280,000 ha of intertidal freshwater marsh accreted due to seal level rise and sediment deposition. Farming of organic soils since 1850 resulted in land subsidence caused primarily by oxidation. Over 2 billion cubic meters of soil were lost resulting in elevations on Delta islands ranging from -1 to -8 m and increased risk of levee failures and water supply disruption. Alteration of water flows and habitat caused dramatic declines in aquatic species. A cycle in which oxidation of organic soils leads to deepening of drainage ditches to maintain an aerated root zone which in turn results in sustained oxidation and subsidence is perpetuated by the momentum of the status quo despite evidence that agricultural practices are increasingly unsustainable. Flooding of the soils breaks the oxidation/subsidence cycle.

We assessed alternate land uses and the carbon market as a potential impetus for change. Using the peer-reviewed and locally calibrated SUBCALC model, we estimated net global warming potential for a range of scenarios for a representative island, from status quo to incorporating significant proportions of subsidence-mitigating land use. We analyzed economic implications by determining profit losses or gains when a simulated GHG offset market is available for wetlands using a regional agricultural production and economic optimization model, We estimated baseline GHG emissions at about 60,000 tons CO2-e per year. In contrast, modeled implementation of rice and wetlands resulted in substantial emissions reductions to the island being a net GHG sink. Subsidence would be arrested or reversed where these land uses are implemented. Results of economic modeling reveal that conversion to wetlands can have significant negative farm financial impacts even when a GHG offset market is in place. Conversion to large areas of rice would result in near carbon neutrality and increased farm income. Our derived wetland supply function can help inform future policy that may incentivize adoption of a more sustainable landscape.