Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Floe Size Distribution in the Marginal Ice Zone in a Thickness and Floe Size Distribution Model

Abstract:

To better describe the state of sea ice in the marginal ice zone (MIZ) with floes of varying thicknesses and sizes, both an ice thickness distribution (ITD) and a floe size distribution (FSD) are needed. We have developed a FSD theory [Zhang et al., 2015] that is coupled to the ITD theory of Thorndike et al. [1975] in order to explicitly simulate the evolution of FSD and ITD jointly. The FSD theory includes a FSD function and a FSD conservation equation in parallel with the ITD equation. The FSD equation takes into account changes in FSD due to ice advection, thermodynamic growth, and lateral melting. It also includes changes in FSD because of mechanical redistribution of floe size due to ice opening, ridging and, particularly, ice fragmentation induced by stochastic ocean surface waves. The floe size redistribution due to ice fragmentation is based on the assumption that wave-induced breakup is a random process such that when an ice floe is broken, floes of any smaller sizes have an equal opportunity to form, without being either favored or excluded. It is also based on the assumption that floes of larger sizes are easier to break because they are subject to larger flexure-induced stresses and strains than smaller floes that are easier to ride with waves with little bending; larger floes also have higher areal coverages and therefore higher probabilities to break. These assumptions with corresponding formulations ensure that the simulated FSD follows a power law as observed by satellites and airborne surveys. The FSD theory has been tested in the Pan-arctic Ice/Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS). The existing PIOMAS has 12 categories each for ice thickness, ice enthalpy, and snow depth. With the implementation of the FSD theory, PIOMAS is able to represent 12 categories of floe sizes ranging from 0.1 m to ~3000 m. It is found that the simulated 12-category FSD agrees reasonably well with FSD derived from SAR and MODIS images. In this study, we will examine PIOMAS-estimated variability and changes in Arctic FSD over the period 1979–present.

Thorndike, A. S., D. A. Rothrock, G. A. Maykut, and R. Colony, The thickness distribution of sea ice. J. Geophys. Res., 80, 1975.

Zhang, J., A. Schweiger, M. Steele, and H. Stern, Sea ice floe size distribution in the marginal ice zone: Theory and numerical experiments, J. Geophys. Res., 120, 2015.