Strategic Floodplain Reconnection Along the Lower Tisza and Lower Illinois Rivers: Identifying Opportunities, Tradeoffs, and Limitations

Abstract:

During the late 19^th and into the 20^th Centuries, the Tisza and Illinois Rivers were highly altered through the construction of levees and dams to reclaim their floodplain-wetland systems for agriculture and to facilitate navigation. In recent decades, flood levels have continued to rise due to aggradation on the confined floodplains reducing flood-conveyance capacity. As a result, “Room for the River” proposals have gained more prominence. Our overarching hypothesis is that strategically reconnecting these rivers to their floodplains will reduce flood levels and increase ecological habitat while limiting socioeconomic impacts.

In this study, we assessed several reconnection scenarios, including levee setbacks and removals, for the Lower Tisza River (LTR; Hungary) and the Lower Illinois River (LIR; Illinois, USA). To model water-surface elevations (WSELs) for the 5- through 500-year flood events, we employed HEC-RAS (1D) and SOBEK (1D/2D) hydraulic models. To determine socioeconomic tradeoffs using these modeled WSELs, we developed a corresponding suite of expected annual damages (EADs) using FEMA’s Hazus-MH flood-loss modeling software for buildings and integrated geospatial and soil productivity indices to estimate agricultural losses. To assess ecosystem benefits of reconnection along the LTR, we used historic wetland extent as a proxy for increasing needed floodplain habitats. For the LIR, we performed habitat screening using Land Capability Potential Index and other assessment tools to estimate potential ecosystem benefits.

Results indicate that levee removal and/or setbacks may reduce flood heights up to 1.6 m along the LTR and over 1.0 m along the LIR. While urban areas have the highest EADs, several lower-production agricultural areas show potential for reducing flood heights while minimizing damages. Strategic-floodplain reconnection benefits along the LTR and LIR include over half of historically-significant wetlands being reconnected and the creation of new habitat patches for threatened species within existing levee districts. While there are multiple benefits that may outweigh the costs of strategic floodplain reconnection, there are also limits to its effectiveness which are constrained by both the political and physical conditions in each basin.