Forecasts and Warnings of Extreme Solar Storms at the Sun

Abstract:

The most pressing space weather forecasts and warnings are those of the most intense solar flares and coronal mass ejections. However, in trying to develop these forecasts and warnings, we are confronted to many fundamental questions. Some of those are:

How to define an observable measure for an extreme solar storm? How extreme can a solar storm become and how long is the build up time? How to make forecasts and warnings?

Many have contributed to clarifying these general questions. In his presentation we will describe our latest results on the topological complexity of magnetic fields and the use of SDO SHARP parameters. The complexity concept will then be used to discuss the second question. Finally we will describe probability estimates of extreme solar storms.