Numerical Modelling of Tsunami Generated by Deformable Submarine Slides: Parameterisation of Slide Dynamics for Coupling to Tsunami Propagation Model

Abstract:

Numerical modelling informs risk assessment of tsunami generated by submarine slides; however, for large-scale slides modelling can be complex and computationally challenging. Many previous numerical studies have approximated slides as rigid blocks that moved according to prescribed motion. However, wave characteristics are strongly dependent on the motion of the slide and previous work has recommended that more accurate representation of slide dynamics is needed.

We have used the finite-element, adaptive-mesh CFD model Fluidity, to perform multi-material simulations of deformable submarine slide-generated waves at real world scales for a 2D scenario in the Gulf of Mexico. Our high-resolution approach represents slide dynamics with good accuracy, compared to other numerical simulations of this scenario, but precludes tracking of wave propagation over large distances. To enable efficient modelling of further propagation of the waves, we investigate an approach to extract information about the slide evolution from our multi-material simulations in order to drive a single-layer wave propagation model, also using Fluidity, which is much less computationally expensive. The extracted submarine slide geometry and position as a function of time are parameterised using simple polynomial functions. The polynomial functions are used to inform a prescribed velocity boundary condition in a single-layer simulation, mimicking the effect the submarine slide motion has on the water column. The approach is verified by successful comparison of wave generation in the single-layer model with that recorded in the multi-material, multi-layer simulations.

We then extend this approach to 3D for further validation of this methodology (using the Gulf of Mexico scenario proposed by Horrillo et al., 2013) and to consider the effect of lateral spreading. This methodology is then used to simulate a series of hypothetical submarine slide events in the Arctic Ocean (based on evidence of historic slides) and examine the hazard posed to the UK coast.