CLIMATE-DRIVEN CHANGES WITHIN THE LARCH FOREST OF NORTHERN SIBERIA

Abstract:

Thanks to the support of NASA's Carbon Cycle and Ecosystem Focus Area programs, joint NASA/ Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences studies have been conducted throughout Siberia. The overall objective has been to obtain field and satellite measurements to examine carbon stocks and track changes in forests across this vast area. In this presentation, we discuss some of the finding from this 25+ year collaboration' i.e., observed climate-driven changes within larch communities in northern Siberia. Field measurements and satellite data, including Terra/MODIS, Landsat, GRACE and QuickBird were used for analysis of forest conditions. The following results will be discussed.

(1). At the northern limit of larch (Larix gmelinii) range (i.e.,~72°N) tree mortality was observed during the cooling period from the 16th century to the beginning of the 19th century. Post- Little Ice Age (LIA) trees re-establishment followed warming temperatures by the middle of the19th century. The current tree line has recovered to the pre-LIA line location although tree heights and stand densities are comparatively lower. The mean rate of upward migration was found to be 0.35 m yr–1 (with a range of 0.21–0.58).

(2) The migration of the “dark needle conifers” (DNC: Abies sibirica, Pinus sibirica, Picea obovata) into the southern margin zone of larch dominated forest was documented. Meanwhile, within the traditional DNC range decline and mortality of both Siberian pine and fir were observed and attributed, primarily, due to an increased drought.

(3) Within Central Siberia larch growth is limited by early summer temperatures and available water from thawing permafrost. Larch tree ring width (TRW) correlated with early summer temperatures and water vapor pressure (r = 0.73 and r = 0.69, respectively), drought (SPEI; r = 0.68–0.82), snow accumulation (r = 0.61), previous year precipitation (r = 0.63) and soil water anomalies (r = 0.79). Larch TRW growth and Gross Primary Productivity increased during recent decades.

(4) A study along the meridian of ~100° E between (64°… 71°+N) shows mean fire return intervals increased from about 80 years at 64°N, to ~200 years near the Arctic Circle, and ~300 years near the northern range limit of larch stands. Post LIA warming caused approximately a doubling of fire events.