A41C-0066
Arctic Change and Mid-latitude Weather Extremes in the CESM Large Ensemble Project
Thursday, 17 December 2015
Poster Hall (Moscone South)
Yannick Peings, University California Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States, Julien Cattiaux, CNRS, Paris Cedex 16, France and Gudrun Magnusdottir, University of California Irvine, Earth System Science, Irvine, CA, United States
Abstract:
In this work we explore the linkage between the Arctic amplification (the fact that surface temperature in the Arctic is increasing twice as fast as elsewhere) and atmospheric modes of variability such as the Northern Annular mode (NAM) using the simulations from the CESM large ensemble project. Ensemble members span the 1920-2100 period, using historical forcing (1920-2005) and RCP8.5 forcing (2006-2100). We examine the change in occurrence of extreme events in the mid-latitudes at the end of the 21st century, especially for cold spells in winter. Possible links between trends in the NAM, jet stream variability, storm tracks, atmospheric blocking, etc... and the amplitude of the 21st-century Arctic amplification in each member of the large ensemble are investigated.
