A Vulnerability-Benefit Analysis of Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions

Abstract:

Although we can anticipate continued improvements in our understanding of future climate impacts, the central challenge of climate change is not scientific, but rather political and economic. In particular, international climate negotiations center on how to share the burden of uncertain mitigation and adaptation costs. We expose the relative economic interests of different countries by assessing and comparing their vulnerability to climate impacts and the economic benefits they derive from the fossil fuel-based energy system. Vulnerability refers to the propensity of humans and their assets to suffer when impacted by hazards, and we draw upon the results from a number of prior studies that have quantified vulnerability using multivariate indices. As a proxy for benefit, we average CO₂ related to each country’s extraction of fossil fuels, production of CO₂ emissions, and consumption of goods and services (Davis et al., 2011), which should reflect benefits accrued in proportion to national economic dependence on fossil fuels. We define a nondimensional vulnerability-benefit ratio for each nation and find a large range across countries. In general, we confirm that developed and emerging economies such as the U.S., Western Europe, and China rely heavily on fossil fuels and have substantial resources to respond to the impacts of climate change, while smaller, less-developed economies such as Sierra Leone and Vanuatu benefit little from current CO₂ emissions and are much more vulnerable to adverse climate impacts. In addition, we identify some countries with a high vulnerability and benefit, such as Iraq and Nigeria; conversely, some nations exhibit both a low vulnerability and benefit, such as New Zealand. In most cases, the ratios reflect the nature of energy-climate policies in each country, although certain nations – such as the United Kingdom and France – assume a level of responsibility incongruous with their ratio and commit to mitigation policy despite relatively low vulnerability and moderately high benefit. Examining current national policies in the context of the vulnerability-benefit ratios suggests that international cooperation to address climate change may require demonstrating the interdependencies of countries whose short-term economic interests seem otherwise divergent.