The Response of Subalpine Vegetation to Climate Change and Bark Beetle Infestations: A Multi-Scale Interaction.

Abstract:

Mean annual temperatures in the western United States have increased in the last few decades, and are predicted to continue warming. In the subalpine zone of the Rocky Mountains, this warming is also predicted to increase the frequency and severity of spruce beetle outbreaks. Climate change itself may affect this vegetation, potentially leading to shifts in species compositions. These forests are a crucial part of the US’s carbon budget, thus it is important to analyze how climate change and bark beetles in conjunction will affect the biomass and species composition of vegetation in subalpine zone. UVAFME is an individual-based gap model that simulates biomass and species composition of a forest. This model has been quantitatively tested at various Rocky Mountain sites in the Front Range, and has been shown to accurately simulate the vegetation dynamics in the region. UVAFME has been updated with a spruce beetle subroutine that calculates the probability for beetle infestation of each tree on a plot. This probability is based on site, climate, and individual tree characteristics, such as temperature; stand structure; and tree stress level, size, and age. These governing characteristics are based on data from the US Forest Service, and other studies on spruce susceptibility and spruce beetle phenology. UVAFME is then run with multiple climate change and beetle scenarios to determine the net effect of both variables on subalpine vegetation. These results are compared among the different scenarios and to current forest inventory data. We project that increasing temperatures due to climate change will cause an increase in the frequency and severity of spruce beetle outbreaks, leading to a decrease in the biomass and dominance of Engelmann spruce. These results are an important step in understanding the possible futures for the vegetation of subalpine zone in the Rocky Mountains.