The Influence of Declining Arctic Sea Ice on Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events

Abstract:

Sudden Stratospheric Warming events have been known for several decades to impact surface weather during the winter season over the Northern Hemisphere. This is a result of the coupling between the Troposphere and Stratosphere which can be observed as early as 60 days prior to the onset of an event. Impacts from the disturbed atmospheric circulation can alter storm tracks and cold temperature anomalies can be observed further south following the onset of an event. As a result of a warming atmosphere, rapidly decreasing arctic sea-ice is introducing changes to air-sea interactions. These changes are expected to increase the frequency of such events over the northern pole, leading to greater surface weather impacts. Previous research suggested a relationship between arctic sea-ice and the frequency of sudden stratospheric warming events, although details of this relationship are not yet well described. Using forced and unforced climate model data arctic sea-ice and sudden stratospheric warming events are analyzed to investigate how variations in the stratosphere and sea-ice are related.