Tracking historical increases in nitrogen-driven crop production possibilities

Abstract:

The environmental costs of nitrogen use have prompted a focus on improving the efficiency of nitrogen use in the global food system, the primary source of nitrogen pollution. Typical approaches to improving agricultural nitrogen use efficiency include more targeted field-level use (timing, placement, and rate) and modification of the crop mix. However, global efficiency gains can also be achieved by improving the spatial allocation of nitrogen between regions or countries, due to consistent diminishing returns at high nitrogen use. This concept is examined by constructing a tradeoff frontier (or production possibilities frontier) describing global crop protein yield as a function of applied nitrogen from all sources, given optimal spatial allocation. Yearly variation in country-level input-output nitrogen budgets are utilized to parameterize country-specific hyperbolic yield-response models. Response functions are further characterized for three ~15-year eras beginning in 1961, and series of calculations uses these curves to simulate optimal spatial allocation in each era and determine the frontier. The analyses reveal that excess nitrogen (in recent years) could be reduced by ~40% given optimal spatial allocation. Over time, we find that gains in yield potential and in-country nitrogen use efficiency have led to increases in the global nitrogen production possibilities frontier. However, this promising shift has been accompanied by an actual spatial distribution of nitrogen use that has become less optimal, in an absolute sense, relative to the frontier. We conclude that examination of global production possibilities is a promising approach to understanding production constraints and efficiency opportunities in the global food system.