Tempered Stable Density Embedded in Precipitation Storm Properties from Climate Projections

Abstract:

We decomposed precipitation time series at four sites in southwestern United States as sequences of average storm intensity, storm duration and inter-storm period. The analysis identified the tempered stable density embedded in the station precipitation record. However, whether this density is preserved in the projected precipitation and whether the stable index varies due to future climate change remain obscure. To address these questions, this study will evaluate the precipitation outputs from the selected Regional Climate Models in North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) and examine the ability of the precipitation projections to preserve the detected tempered stable density. This study will also investigate how the characteristics of the stable density will change in the future by comparing the parameters determined from NARCCAP historical runs and future runs. The final goal is to build a three-state continuous time random walk model to quantify extreme storm events that are critical to many hydrological and environmental issues.