Quantitative Assessment of Potentially Active Faults in Oklahoma Utilizing Detailed Information on In Situ Stress Orientation and Relative Magnitude

Abstract:

Over the past six years, the earthquake rate in the central and eastern U.S. has increased markedly, and is related to fluid injection. Nowhere has seismicity increased more than in Oklahoma, where large volumes of saline pore water are co-produced with oil and gas, then injected into deeper sedimentary formations. These deeper formations appear to be in hydraulic communication with potentially active faults in crystalline basement, where nearly all the earthquakes are occurring. Although the majority of the recent earthquakes have posed little danger to the public, the possibility of triggering damaging earthquakes on potentially active basement faults cannot be discounted. To understand probability of slip on a given fault, we invert for stresses from the hundreds of M4+ events in Oklahoma for which moment tensors have been made. We then resolve these stresses, while incorporating uncertainties, on the faults from the preliminary Oklahoma fault map. The result is a probabilistic understanding of which faults are most likely active and best avoided.