Examining the Prevalence of Natural Gas “Super-emitters” in the Marcellus Shale Region

Abstract:

Natural gas has been touted as a “transition fuel” that can ease the Unites States’ move towards a low-carbon economy. However, recent studies have shown natural gas leakage rates are larger than expected. High emission rates have the potential to minimize or entirely counteract the early climatic benefits of switching from coal because of the high global warming potential of methane, the primary component of natural gas. Several studies have noted that the distribution of well emissions seems to be skewed, or “fat tailed,” with a small number of sites accounting for disproportionately large percentages of emissions. The subset of high-emitting wells, dubbed “super-emitters,” is poorly understood and difficult to quantify in studies with small sample sizes. This study seeks to quantify natural gas leaks and understand the statistical significance of “super-emitters” within the Marcellus Shale region. During a field campaign in July 2015, we sampled 250 separate well pads in the Marcellus Region, with an ultimate goal of 1000 wells to be completed in subsequent campaigns in 2015 and 2016. A mobile lab was equipped with LICOR open-path sensors measuring CH₄, CO₂, and H₂O mixing ratios as well as a GPS device.

Well pad emissions are determined by isolating peaks and employing an inverse Gaussian plume method. The wind information necessary for these calculations is taken from NOAA READY archived meteorology modeling. Median emission rates of a data subset are 0.14 g CH₄/s among emitting wells, which are comparable in order of magnitude with those in other basins. The preliminary distribution also exhibits skewed characteristics with about 10% of wells accounting for 75% of emissions. Data comparing the prevalence and relative emission strength of these ‘super-emitters’ will be presented. Further research will examine their prevalence, shared attributes, and implications for the Marcellus Shale natural gas industry.