Tropical Cyclones in Simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum

Abstract:

How tropical cyclones respond to large-scale changes in climate is an important and complex question. Here we study the question using the response to the climate forcing of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Utilizing two detecting and tracking algorithms of tropical cyclones (TC), we assess the sensitivity of the genesis and frequency of TCs in a 1° x 1° simulation of a global climate model (CCSM), a limited-area simulation (western north Pacific; WNP) of the higher resolution WRF model (36 km horizontal resolution), and the statistical downscaling approach developed by Emanuel. We assess how changes between the LGM and 20th century climatology of TCs are related to changes in the large-scale environmental variables known to be important to TCs (e.g. vorticity, wind shear, and available moisture).

Several facets of the TC climatology at the LGM are similar across all three modeling techniques: regions that spawn TCs and their seasonal cycle at the LGM is similar to the present-day distribution, while the total counts are slightly reduced at the LGM. The average intensity in the WRF model (which features resolution high enough to resolve strong storms) is similar between the two climates, though the distribution of intensity is more concentrated at the LGM (there are fewer weak events and fewer of the strongest events at the LGM). Conditions are similarly favorable in much of the deep tropics at the LGM compared to the 20th century, particularly in the central and western Pacific, but conditions become more hostile at the subtropical margins. We compare the resulting climatology with the underlying changes in environmental factors, and empirically derive a genesis index to identify the best fit between changes in the factors and climatology of events.