Achieving the NOAA Arctic Action Plan: The Missing Permafrost Element – Permafrost Forecasting Listening Session Results

Abstract:

Permafrost is ground at or below freezing for at least two consecutive years. It currently occupies 80% of Alaska. Permafrost temperature and active layer thickness (ALT) are key climatic variables for monitoring permafrost conditions. Active layer thickness is the depth that the top layer of ground above the permafrost thaws each summer season and permafrost temperature is the temperature of the frozen permafrost under this active layer. Knowing permafrost conditions is key for those individuals working and living in Alaska and the Arctic. The results of climate models predict vast changes and potential permafrost degradation across Alaska and the Arctic.

NOAA is working to implement its 2014 Arctic Action Plan and permafrost forecasting is a missing piece of this plan. The Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy (ACCAP), using our webinar software and our diverse network of statewide stakeholder contacts, hosted a listening session to bring together a select group of key stakeholders. During this listening session the National Weather Service (NWS) and key permafrost researchers explained what is possible in the realm of permafrost forecasting and participants had the opportunity to discuss and share with the group (NWS, researchers, other stakeholders) what is needed for usable permafrost forecasting.

This listening session aimed to answer the questions:

1. Is permafrost forecasting needed?
2. If so, what spatial scale is needed by stakeholders?
3. What temporal scales do stakeholders need/want?
4. Are there key times (winter, fall freeze-up, etc.) or locations (North Slope, key oil development areas, etc.) where forecasting would be most applicable and useful?
5. Are there other considerations or priority needs we haven’t thought of regarding permafrost forecasting?

This presentation will present the results of that listening session.