Traffic Light Protocol for Induced Seismicity: What is the Best Strategy?

Abstract:

In response to the occurrence of relatively large (and felt) earthquakes that are potentially induced by man-made activities, there is an increasing trend for the industry and government regulators to include a “traffic light” system in their decision-making process. Despite its tremendous implications to the cost of operations and the protection of public safety, the protocol that defines the different scenarios for different lights (“green”, “yellow”, or “red”) has not been thoroughly validated to truly reflect the associated seismic risk. Most government regulators adopt a traffic light protocol (TLP) that depends on the magnitude of the earthquake of interest and sometimes felt reports from local communities. It is well known that the estimate of an earthquake’s magnitude can have some uncertainty. While an uncertainty of +/-0.2 in magnitude is understandable and generally accepted by the seismological community, it can create a serious problem when the value of magnitude is the predominant factor in the TLP for induced seismicity. Recent examples of magnitude 4 and larger earthquakes in northeast BC and western AB that are possibly induced by shale gas hydraulic fracturing have demonstrated vividly the possible deficiency of existing TLP for induced seismicity. From the viewpoint of mitigating seismic risk, we argue that a ground-motion based TLP should be more effective than a magnitude-based approach. A workshop with representatives from government agencies, the industry, and the academia will be held to review the deficiency of the current TLP for induced seismicity and to explore innovative ways of improvement. The ultimate goal of the TLP for induced seismicity is to reach a balance between the protection of public safety and the economic benefit of developing natural resources In this presentation, main conclusions of this workshop will be presented.