Effects of warming on groundwater flow in mountainous snowmelt-dominated catchments

Abstract:

In mountainous regions, warmer air temperatures have led to an earlier onset of spring snowmelt and lower snowmelt rates; i.e. because snowmelt has shifted earlier when energy availability is lower. These changes to snowmelt will likely affect the partitioning of snowmelt water between surface runoff and groundwater flow, and therefore, the lag time between snowmelt and streamflow. While the connection between snowmelt and surface runoff has been well-studied, the impact of snowmelt variability on groundwater flow processes has received limited attention, especially in mountainous catchments.

We construct a two-dimensional, finite element, coupled flow and heat transport hydrogeologic model to evaluate how changes in snowmelt onset and rate may alter groundwater discharge to streams in mountainous catchments. The coupled hydrogeologic model simulates seasonally frozen ground by incorporating permeability variation as a function of temperature and allows for modeling of pore water freeze and thaw. We apply the model to the Green Lakes Valley (GLV) watershed in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado, a representative snowmelt-dominated catchment. Snowmelt for the GLV catchment is reconstructed from a 12 year (1996-2007) dataset of hydrometeorological records and satellite-derived snow covered area.

Modeling results suggest that on a yearly cycle, groundwater infiltration and discharge is limited by the seasonally frozen subsurface. Under average conditions from 1996 to 2007, maximum groundwater discharge to the surface lags maximum snowmelt by approximately two months. Ongoing modeling is exploring how increasing air temperatures affect lag times between snowmelt and groundwater discharge to streams. This study has implications for water resource availability and its temporal variability in a warming global climate.