Characterization of Multi-Scale Atmospheric Conditions Associated with Extreme Precipitation in the Transverse Ranges of Southern California

Abstract:

The east-west oriented Transverse Ranges of Southern California have historically experienced shallow landslides and debris flows that threaten life and property. Steep topography, soil composition, and frequent wildfires make this area susceptible to mass wasting. Extreme rainfall often acts as a trigger for these events. This work characterizes atmospheric conditions at multiple scales during extreme (>99^th percentile) 1-day precipitation events in the major sub-ranges of the Transverse Ranges. Totals from these 1-day events generally exceed the established sub-daily intensity-duration thresholds for shallow landslides and debris flows in this region. Daily extreme precipitation values are derived from both gridded and station-based datasets over the period 1958-2014. For each major sub-range, extreme events are clustered by atmospheric feature and direction of moisture transport. A composite analysis of synoptic conditions is produced for each cluster to create a conceptual model of atmospheric conditions favoring extreme precipitation. The vertical structure of the atmosphere during these extreme events is also examined using observed and modeled soundings. Preliminary results show two atmospheric features to be of importance: 1) closed and cutoff low-pressure systems, areas of counter-clockwise circulation that can produce southerly flow orthogonal to the Transverse Range ridge axes; and 2) atmospheric rivers that transport large quantities of water vapor into the region. In some cases, the closed lows and atmospheric rivers work in concert with each other to produce extreme precipitation. Additionally, there is a notable east-west dipole of precipitation totals during some extreme events between the San Gabriel and Santa Ynez Mountains where extreme values are observed in one range and not the other. The cause of this relationship is explored. The results of this work can help forecasters and emergency responders determine the likelihood that an event will produce extreme precipitation in the Transverse Ranges.