Hydromechanical Failure Analysis Associated with Laurentide Ice Sheet Glaciations

Abstract:

Glacial loading by continental ice sheets has been linked to large (> M6) Late Pleistocene and Holocene seismicity in Scandinavia and North America along with sedimentary basin blowout features such as Lake Howe, Manitoba Canada and glacio-tectonic thrust structures. The specter of future glaciations is considered one of the most important factors to consider in siting of high-level nuclear wastes in Switzerland, Canada, and Sweden. To date, continental-scale analysis of crustal failure has focused on mechanical failure which has neglected the effects of pore pressure and permeability changes. We have developed a two-dimensional, Cartesian, elastic, plane strain control volume finite element (CVFEM) model to investigate the effect of pore pressure on the failure potential along a cross-sectional transect stretching from the Hudson Bay to the Gulf of Mexico. Our analysis considers fluid flow and pore pressure eveolution within the upper 10km of the earths crust and mechanical deformation within at 100 km thick lithosphere. We imposed 4 cycles of glaciation of the Laurentide ice sheet during the Last Late Pleistocene. The geomechanical deformation is coupled to the fluid flow through time dependent changes in the mean normal stress. We have conducted a sensitivity study in which we have varied the permeability of the upper crust between a range of 10^-20 to 10^-14 m². We solve a series of one-dimensional heat transfer equations to determine regions where the Laurentide ice sheet is wet based or frozen. A Mohr-Coulomb failure criteria was used to analyze the potential of seismicity and permeability changes along pre-existing critically stressed faults. Mechanically failure (neglecting pore pressure evolution, see Figure A attached) caused by ice sheet induced stress perturbation were found to be primarily concentrate in the forebulge region of the ice sheet with the effective Coulomb stress being 4.4 MPa. However, when pore pressure evolution is considered in the failure analysis(see Figure B attached), a much higher effective Coulomb stress of 22 MPa has been seen underneath the interior of the ice sheet thickness, posing a failure over a broader region.