Using the Ionosphere as a Detector of Earthquakes Before They Happen

Abstract:

Concerning the obvious need to predict earthquakes, many ideas have existed for hundreds of years, including observed animal and bird responses to some unknown trigger. Although not to be dismissed, these predictors have proved unreliable. Scrutiny of seismic data has not yielded a repeatable signature preceding earthquakes. The ionosphere, the topic of this session, has the potential of being a harbinger of impending seismic events when used as an enormous worldwide detector with the total mass of only a few pickup trucks. Here, we report on the ionospheric response to impending seismic events, not days or weeks before a quake, but a reliable 45±5 minutes beforehand. We support this report with data from hundreds of GPS stations in Japan operating before and during the recent, very large earthquake/tsunami event. We also show similar precursors from other large quakes, in addition to data from the Stanford ELF/VLF system before the Loma Prieta (aka, the World Series earthquake). This system detected a magnetic field fluctuation at ground level 40 minutes before that quake. A theory explaining the mechanism for these ionospheric changes will be presented.