Whole Atmosphere Modeling and Data Analysis: Success Stories, Challenges and Perspectives

Abstract:

At the end of the 20-th century Raymond Roble suggested an ambitious target of developing an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) that spans from the surface to the thermosphere for modeling the coupled atmosphere-ionosphere with drivers from terrestrial meteorology and solar-geomagnetic inputs. He pointed out several areas of research and applications that would benefit highly from the development and improvement of whole atmosphere modeling. At present several research groups using middle and whole atmosphere models have attempted to perform coupled ionosphere-thermosphere predictions to interpret the “unexpected” anomalies in the electron content, ions and plasma drifts observed during recent stratospheric warming events. The recent whole atmosphere inter-comparison case studies also displayed striking differences in simulations of prevailing flows, planetary waves and dominant tidal modes even when the lower atmosphere domain of those models were constrained by similar meteorological analyses. We will present the possible reasons of such differences between data-constrained whole atmosphere simulations when analyses with 6-hour time resolution are used and discuss the potential model-data and model-model differences above the stratopause. The possible shortcomings of the whole atmosphere simulations associated with model physics, dynamical cores and resolutions will be discussed. With the increased confidence in the space-borne temperature, winds and ozone observations and extensive collections of ground-based upper atmosphere observational facilities, the whole atmosphere modelers will be able to quantify annual and year-to-variability of the zonal mean flows, planetary wave and tides. We will demonstrate the value of tidal and planetary wave variability deduced from the space-borne data and ground-based systems for evaluation and tune-up of whole atmosphere simulations including corrections of systematic model errors. Several success stories on the middle and whole atmosphere simulations coupled with the ionosphere models will be highlighted, and future perspectives for links of the space and terrestrial weather predictions constrained by current and scheduled ionosphere-thermosphere-mesosphere satellite missions will be presented