Inverse and Forward Modeling of The 2014 Iquique Earthquake with Run-up Data

Abstract:

The April 1, 2014 Mw 8.2 Iquique earthquake excited a moderate tsunami which turned on the national alert of tsunami threat. This earthquake was located in the well-known seismic gap in northern Chile which had a high seismic potential (~ Mw 9.0) after the two main large historic events of 1868 and 1877. Nonetheless, studies of the seismic source performed with seismic data inversions suggest that the event exhibited a main patch located around 19.8° S at 40 km of depth with a seismic moment equivalent to Mw = 8.2. Thus, a large seismic deficit remains in the gap being capable to release an event of Mw = 8.8-8.9.
To understand the importance of the tsunami threat in this zone, a seismic source modeling of the Iquique Earthquake is performed. A new approach based on stochastic k² seismic sources is presented. A set of those sources is generated and for each one, a full numerical tsunami model is performed in order to obtain the run-up heights along the coastline. The results are compared with the available field run-up measurements and with the tide gauges that registered the signal. The comparison is not uniform; it penalizes more when the discrepancies are larger close to the peak run-up location. This criterion allows to identify the best seismic source from the set of scenarios that explains better the observations from a statistical point of view.
By the other hand, a L² norm minimization is used to invert the seismic source by comparing the peak nearshore tsunami amplitude (PNTA) with the run-up observations. This method searches in a space of solutions the best seismic configuration by retrieving the Green’s function coefficients in order to explain the field measurements.
 The results obtained confirm that a concentrated down-dip patch slip adequately models the run-up data.