SEISMIC SCENARIO IN THE ACAMBAY GRABEN AND POSSIBLE AFFECTATIONS IN THE MIGUEL HIDALGO REFINERY

Abstract:

In this paper we presented synthetic acceleration records in the Miguel Hidalgo refinery, Hidalgo due to a seismic scenario originated in the graben Acambay, such as occurred in 1912 (70 km distance to it). This earthquake had a magnitude of 6.9 and caused extensive damage, according to reports caused 164 deaths and numerous houses collapsing.

To simulate the event of M = 6.9 we used the empirical Green´s function method proposed by Irikura (1986). Due to the low seismic activity we have not any small earthquake record or an “element earthquake” so that we generated a synthetic seismogram of M = 4.1 to be used as empirical Green´s function. The seismogram was constructed in two parts. For low frequencies we constructed from cross-correlations of seismic noise, while for high frequencies we made a stochastic simulation. Subsequently, we applied a "matched filter" to join the two frequency bands of synthetic earthquake.

For the construction of seismic scenario the method of Irikura (1986) was used. We consider a square fault of 47.75 km long, a radial rupture propagation, rupture velocity of 3.06 m/s, and with the following focal mechanism: strike of 280°, dip of 66 ° and rake of -138 °.

With these parameters we obtained the synthetic seismograms. Since there was not any observed earthquake to validate the model, the 1912 event was simulated and then from relationships of intensity (obtained Wald et al.,2005; Sandoval et al., 2013; and Arias, 1969), we estimated the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) for the refinery. We compare our result with isoseismal map obtained by Suter et al. (1996) for the earthquake of 1912. In agreement with Suter, our results shown a MMI V-VI for the Miguel Hidalgo refinery.

With this qualitative validation we search the seismic scenario with the higher accelerations and from this synthetic seismogram, we obtained parameters that are of interest in engineering to estimate the possible affectations to the Miguel Hidalgo refinery, such as: PGA, PGV, response spectra, dominant period of significant duration event, and estimated MMI.