Difficulties in Forecasting Flow Paths During the 2014-2015 Lava Flow Crisis at Kīlauea Volcano (Hawaiʻi)

Abstract:

Kīlauea’s East Rift Zone (ERZ) eruptive activity at Puʻu ʻŌʻō shifted to a new vent in June 2014, sparking a lava flow crisis that threatened critical infrastructure near the town of Pāhoa in east Hawaiʻi. The lava flow proved to be challenging to forecast because of the influence of ground cracks on flow direction, frequent fluctuations in lava supply, and the subtle interplay between ground slope and confining topography that prevented the flow from spreading laterally. After its onset, the “June 27th” flow, named informally for its start date, advanced northeast at up to several hundred m/day. The flow’s path through heavy forest was forecast using steepest-descent paths derived from a digital elevation model (DEM). Flow path uncertainties were minimized using a multiple-run technique and built-in random DEM errors (modified from Favalli et al., 2005). In mid-August, the flow encountered and entered one of many deep, discontinuous ground cracks along Kīlauea’s middle ERZ. The flow continued to advance out of sight in the crack, as inferred from a forward-progressing line of steam. A week later, lava spilled from the crack 1.3 km downslope, advancing along a different flow path than was forecast. By early September, the flow had entered and exited three more cracks sequentially, carrying the flow across slope, thus making flow path forecasts unreliable. Moreover, lava-occupied cracks dilated by up to 3 m. The lava accumulating in the ground cracks forced immense, but apparently mobile, blocks to shift. Thus, while an open crack was required to capture the lava, the lava was able to force its way beyond where the crack closed. In this way, the lava flow acted as an intruding dike. The flow eventually advanced beyond the area of cracks and onto a steepest-descent path that guided the flow toward the town of Pāhoa, where it destroyed one house, reached to within ~155 m of the main street in Pāhoa, and threatened the main highway and shopping center serving the east side of the Island of Hawaiʻi. The flow front stalled on March 13, 2015, owing to reservoir depressurization occurring at Kīlauea’s summit. When the summit system recovered, activity withdrew to within ~9 km of the vent, ending the immediate threat to the Pāhoa area.