Atmospheric River Forecasting: Current Capabilities, Needs and New Directions

Abstract:

Given the vital role of atmospheric rivers to the Western U.S., including impacts on water supply, drought and flood, it is important to explore forecasting of atmospheric rivers and the precipitation associated with them. This includes evaluating current forecasting capabilities and identification of specific atmospheric river forecast information requirements for existing and new applications. This presentation will provide a brief summary of current capabilities, of key applications and new needs, as well as a description of some of the major forecasting challenges. It will also provide a survey of various research efforts underway to develop new forecasting tools and methods tailored to landfalling atmospheric rivers and their impacts. These efforts include new observational data, conceptual models, numerical weather prediction models, data assimilation methods, the CalWater field experiments and applications to water management and flood control.