Assessing Landslide Mobility Using GIS: Application to Kosrae, Micronesia

Abstract:

Deadly landslides are often mobile landslides, as exemplified by the disastrous landslide that occurred near Oso, Washington in 2014 killing 43. Despite this association, many landslide susceptibility maps do not identify runout areas. We developed a simple, GIS-based method for identifying areas potentially overrun by mobile slides and debris flows. Our method links three processes within a DEM landscape: landslide initiation, transport, and debris-flow inundation (from very mobile slides). Given spatially distributed shear strengths, we first identify initiation areas using an infinite-slope stability analysis. We then delineate transport zones, or regions of potential entrainment and/or deposition, using a height/length runout envelope. Finally, where these transport zones intersect the channel network, we start debris-flow inundation zones. The extent of inundation is computed using the USGS model Laharz, modified to include many debris-flow locations throughout a DEM. Potential debris-flow volumes are computed from upslope initiation areas and typical slide thicknesses.

We applied this approach to the main island of Kosrae State, Federated States of Micronesia (FSM). In 2002, typhoon Chata’an triggered numerous landslides on the neighboring islands of Chuuk State, FSM, resulting in 43 fatalities. Using an infinite-slope stability model calibrated to the Chuuk event, we identified potential landslide initiation areas on Kosrae. We then delineated potential transport zones using a 20º runout envelope, based on runout observations from Chuuk. Potential debris-flow inundation zones were then determined using Laharz. Field inspections on Kosrae revealed that our resulting susceptibility map correctly classified areas covered by previous debris-flow deposits and did not include areas covered by fluvial deposits. Our map has the advantage of providing a visual tool to portray initiation, transport, and runout zones from mobile landslides.