Carbon dioxide emissions and the overshoot ratio change resulting from the implementation of 2nd Energy Master Plan in South Korea

Abstract:

The direction of the energy policies of the country is important in the projection of environmental impacts of the country. The greenhouse gases (GHGs) emission of the energy sector in South Korea is very huge, about 600 MtCO₂e in 2011. Also the carbon footprint due to the energy consumption contributes to the ecological footprint is also large, more than 60%. Based on the official plans (the national greenhouse gases emission reduction target for 2030 (GHG target for 2030) and the 2^nd Energy Master Plan (2^nd EMP)), several scenarios were proposed and the sensitivity of the GHG emission amount and ‘overshoot ratio’ which is the ratio of ecological footprint to biocapacity were estimated. It was found that to meet the GHG target for 2030 the ratio of non-emission energy for power generation should be over 71% which would be very difficult. We also found that the overshoot ratio would increase from 5.9 in 2009 to 7.6 in 2035. Thus, additional efforts are required to reduce the environmental burdens in addition to optimize the power mix configuration. One example is the conversion efficiency in power generation. If the conversion efficiency in power generation rises up 50% from the current level, 40%, the energy demand and resultant carbon dioxide emissions would decrease about 10%. Also the influence on the environment through changes in consumption behavior, for example, the diet choice is expected to be meaningful.