Sensitivity Analysis of PM2.5 in Seoul to Emissions and Reaction Rates Using the GEOS-Chem and its Adjoint Model

Abstract:

The sources of PM2.5 are poorly quantified in Seoul, Korea, where tens of millions of populations are daily exposed to the exceedance of PM2.5 concentrations to the air quality criteria. We used a global 3-D chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) and its adjoint to investigate the sensitivities of PM2.5 concentrations in Seoul to emission sources, sectors, and chemical reaction rates. We first conduct forward model simulations using a nested version of GEOS-Chem with 0.25°x0.3125° spatial resolutions in East Asia for July 2012 - July 2013. We evaluated the model by comparing it with PM2.5 mass and chemical composition observations at National Institute of Environmental Research sites in Korea. The model reasonably reproduces the observed seasonal variability of PM2.5 concentrations (R=0.3-0.6), but tends to overestimate the observations in summer and underestimate them in winter. Our sensitivity analyses show the dominant contributions from local emission sources to PM2.5 concentrations in Seoul compared to the trans-boundary transport influences from the outside, which are important for long-lived tracers in spring. Other results including the model sensitivity to input parameters and the updated emissions are used to improve the model performance and to provide strategic information for the KORUS-AQ flight measurement campaign in May-June, 2016.