Multiple indices method for real-time tsunami inundation forecast using a dense offshore observation network

Monday, 14 December 2015: 14:40
309 (Moscone South)
Naotaka Yamamoto, Shin Aoi, Kenji Hirata, Wataru Suzuki, Takashi Kunugi and Hiromitsu Nakamura, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Tsukuba, Japan
We started to develop a new methodology for real-time tsunami inundation forecast system (Aoi et al., 2015, this meeting) using densely offshore tsunami observations of the Seafloor Observation Network for Earthquakes and Tsunamis (S-net), which is under construction along the Japan Trench (Kanazawa et al., 2012, JpGU; Uehira et al., 2015, IUGG). In our method, the most important concept is involving any type and/or form uncertainties in the tsunami forecast, which cannot be dealt with any of standard linear/nonlinear least square approaches. We first prepare a Tsunami Scenario Bank (TSB), which contains offshore tsunami waveforms at the S-net stations and tsunami inundation information calculated from any possible tsunami source. We then quickly select several acceptable tsunami scenarios that can explain offshore observations by using multiple indices and appropriate thresholds, after a tsunami occurrence. At that time, possible tsunami inundations coupled with selected scenarios are forecasted (Yamamoto et al., 2014, AGU). Currently, we define three indices: correlation coefficient and two variance reductions, whose L2-norm part is normalized either by observations or calculations (Suzuki et al., 2015, JpGU; Yamamoto et al., 2015, IUGG).

In this study, we construct the TSB, which contains various tsunami source models prepared for the probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment in the Japan Trench region (Hirata et al., 2014, AGU). To evaluate the propriety of our method, we adopt the fault model based on the 2011 Tohoku earthquake as a pseudo “observation”. We also calculate three indices using coastal maximum tsunami height distributions between observation and calculation. We then obtain the correlation between coastal and offshore indices. We notice that the index value of coastal maximum tsunami heights is closer to 1 than the index value of offshore waveforms, i.e., the coastal maximum tsunami height may be predictable within appropriate thresholds defined for offshore indices. We also investigate the effect of rise-time.

This work was partially supported by the Council for Science, Technology and Innovation (CSTI) through the Cross-ministerial Strategic Innovation Promotion Program (SIP), titled “Enhancement of societal resiliency against natural disasters” (Funding agency: JST).