A Study of Spatio-Temporal Variability in Future Wind Energy over the Korean Peninsula Using Regional Climate Model Ensemble Projections

Abstract:

The impacts of climate change on wind speed, wind energy density (WED), and potential electronic production (PEP) over the Korean peninsula have been investigated by using five regional climate models (HadGEM3-RA, RegCM, WRF, GRIMs and MM5) ensemble projection data. HadGEM2-AO based two RCP scenarios (RCP4.5/8.5) data have been used for initial and boundary condition to all RCMs. Wind energy density and its annual and seasonal variability have been estimated based on monthly near-surface wind speeds, and the potential electronic production and its change have been also analyzed. As a result of comparison ensemble models based annual mean wind speed for 25-yr historical period (1981-2005) to the ERA-interim, it is shown that all RCMs overestimate near-surface wind speed compared to the reanalysis data but the results of HadGEM3-RA are most comparable. The changes annual and seasonal mean of WED and PEP for the historical period and comparison results to future projection (2021-2050) will be presented in this poster session. We also scrutinize the changes in mean sea level pressure and mean sea level pressure gradient in driving GCM/RCM as a factor inducing the variations. Our results can be used as a background data for devising a plan to develop and operate wind farm over the Korean Peninsula.