Analysis of Climate Change Effects on Baseflow Index and Groundwater Dependent Ecosystems

Abstract:

Severe water shortages have been observed globally and the damage from climate change is predicted to increase consistently. Especially, groundwater which accounts for 95% of water resources that ecosystems rely on is very important. In order to protect the health of ecosystems from groundwater, research on climate change adaptation is necessary. This research aims at analyzing the effects of baseflow on Groundwater Dependent Ecosystems(GDEs) through Baseflow Index(BFI) utilizing run-off discharge according to the climate change. In order to analyze the effects on GDEs, Nakdong basin was selected for demonstration. So as to compute the baseflow in the basin, Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) was employed. This research compared and analyzed distribution of BFI over the past 30 years and expected BFI in connection with climate change. RCP 8.5 provided by IPCC was utilized and the result showed that changes of BFI in four periods, P1(1980-2009), F1(2010-2039), F2(2040-2069) and F3(2070-2099), varied according to weather conditions. So as to analyze the correlation between baseflow each period and GDEs, this research employed ecosystems health index and carried out correlation analysis according to each GDEs. Analysis showed that correlation between baseflow and Benthic Macro-invertebrate(BMI) was over R² 0.7 and correlation to the rest was low. This means BMI prove to be sensitive in BFI. The purpose of this research is to figure out the characteristics of baseflow about the impact of climate change and analyze the impact of baseflow on GDEs through the correlation analysis between baseflow and ecosystems health index. BMI has high correlation to baseflow and the rest do not. Generally, however, GDEs are hugely inter-related to water so that baseflow which accounts for over 40 percent cannot be excluded. Therefore, based on this research, management system on baseflow ought to be established with more endeavors to protect and preserve ecosystems.