The effect of abrupt permafrost thaw on the water table, vegetation and carbon feedback: results from a sub-arctic peatland

Abstract:

Uncertainty in estimating the carbon loss from thawing ice-rich permafrost is attributed, in part, to the abrupt changes in ecosystem structure and function after thaw. In a thawing peat plateau in the discontinuous permafrost zone (Stordalen, Mire, Sweden; ST), we tested for the occurrence of abrupt changes in hydrology and the effects of these changes on the water table and vegetation feedback. Using a chronosequence approach along three transects that capture several transitional thaw stages, we found abrupt hydrological changes following thaw, wherein adjacent areas (1 m apart) had unrelated water table depth (WTD) fluctuations. Despite these abrupt changes, surprisingly, the same Gaussian model of plant abundance explained by WTD could be applied to data from both ST and an undisturbed ombrotrophic peatland (Mer Bleue Bog, Canada; MB). However, the Gaussian model fit was better at MB than at ST. Furthermore, explanatory power of the model at ST decreased with increasing permafrost thaw. While water table and vegetation feedback in a thawing landscape is similar to that of a peatland without transitional land cover types, the vegetation and carbon feedback is complicated by non-linear shifts in the partitioning of gaseous effluxes between CO₂ and CH₄. These results will be presented along with key implications for modeling carbon loss from thawing landscapes.