Thermal State Of Permafrost In Urban Environment Under Changing Climatic Conditions

Tuesday, 15 December 2015
Poster Hall (Moscone South)
Valery I Grebenets, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia and Dmitry A Streletskiy, George Washington University, Washington, DC, United States
Risks and damage, caused by deformation of building and constructions in cryolithozone, are growing for decades. Worsening of cryo-ecological situation and loss of engineering-geocryological safety are induced by both technogenic influences on frozen basement and climate change. In such towns on permafrost as Vorkuta, Dixon more than 60% of objects are deformed, in Yakutsk, Igarka- nearly 40%, in Norilsk, Talnakh, Mirnij 35%, in old indigenous villages - approximately 100%; more than 80% ground dams with frozen cores are in poor condition. This situation is accompanied by activation of dangerous cryogenic processes. For example in growing seasonally-thaw layer is strengthening frost heave of pipeline foundation: only on Yamburg gas condensate field (Taz Peninsula) are damaged by frost heave and cut or completely replaced 3000 – 5000 foundations of gas pipelines. Intensity of negative effects strongly depends on regional geocryology, technogenic loads and climatic trends, and in Arctic we see a temperature rise – warming, which cause permafrost temperature rise and thaw).

In built areas heat loads are more diverse: cold foundations (under the buildings with ventilated cellars or near termosyphons) are close to warm areas with technogenic beddings (mainly sandy), that accumulate heat, close to underground collectors for communications, growing thaw zones around, close to storages of snows, etc. Note that towns create specific microclimate with higher air temperature. So towns are powerful technogenic (basically, thermal) presses, placed on permafrost; in cooperation with climate changes (air temperature rise, increase of precipitation) they cause permafrost degradation.

The analysis of dozens of urban thermal fields, formed in variable cryological and soil conditions, showed, that nearly 70% have warming trend, 20% - cooling and in 10% of cases the situation after construction is stable. Triggered by warming of climate changes of vegetation, depth and temperature of seasonally thaw layer, summer precipitation regime and other natural parameters in combination with developing technogenesis require new strategy of the cryolithozone development.