More Water Resources but Less for Irrigation: Adaptation Strategy of the Yellow River in a Changing Environment

Abstract:

The Yellow River is the primary source of freshwater to the northern China. Increasing population and socio-economic development have put great pressure on water resources of the river basin. The anticipated climate and socio-economic changes may further increase water stress. Development of adaptation strategies would have significant implications for water and food security of this region. In this study, the outputs of multiple hydrological models forced with the bias-corrected climatic variables from multiple global climate models were used to assess the change in renewable water resources of the river basin in the 21^st century. The outputs of multiple crop models were used to assess the change in agricultural water demand. The domestic and industrial water demands were estimated based on the future socio-economic conditions under the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Besides basic ecosystem needs for water which must be met, the water use in domestic and industrial sectors is considered to have a higher priority than the agricultural water use when water is insufficient. The results show that the renewable water resources of the basin would increase as global mean temperature increases while the water demand would grow much more rapidly, largely due to water demand increase in domestic and industrial sectors. In most of the sub-basins of the Yellow River basin, the available water resources can not sustain all the water use sectors starting from the next a few decades. As more water resources would be appropriated by domestic and industrial sectors, a part of irrigated area had to be converted to rainfed agriculture which led to a large reduction in food production. This study highlights the linked water and food security in a changing environment and suggests that the trade-off should be considered when developing regional adaptation strategies.