Analysis of Future High Temperature Region in Urban Area under Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract:

 Urban air temperature is higher than surrounding air temperature. It is called Urban Heat Island. Furthermore, according to climate change, Urban air temperature is expected to be increased in the future. Therefore, Preparing for high temperature event result from climate change is important as well as preparing for presence of the urban heat. In this study, we analyzed Seoul temperature change according to the climate change scenarios, and suggested some strategies to fight against climate change and urban heat island.

 For doing this, Firstly, Seoul was divided into 1km² cells which matches the climate change scenario resolution. Then, future temperature distribution was analyzed. In this time, future temperature means distribution means the average temperature in August 2010~2100 from Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios.

 Secondly, Cells where temperature is over 33℃ are selected as the “high temperature region (HTR)”. For identifying HTUR characteristics, we did regression analysis with terrain, land cover, distance from rivers and mountains variables.

 As a result, most of the HTR was distributed to the industrial and business districts, and appeared as far away from the rivers and mountains. These result can be used in the further urban heat island studies, especially identifying urban type which vulnerable to climate change. Also, it can be helpful in establishing strategies corresponding to the future climate.