Modelling of Subglacial Volcanic and Geothermal Activity, during the 2014-15 Bárdarbunga-Holuhraun Eruption and Caldera Collapse

Abstract:

Seismic unrest was observed within the subglacial caldera of Bárdarbunga on 16 August 2014, followed by seismicity tracing the path of a lateral dyke extending underneath the Vatnajökull glacier out to 45 km to the north east of the volcano. A short subaerial fissure eruption occurred at the site of the Holuhraun lavas, just north of the glacier edge on 29 August, before recommencing in earnest on 31 August with a large effusive eruption and accompanying slow caldera collapse, which lasted for approximately 6 months.

The glacier surface around Bárdarbunga was monitored using aerial altimeter profiling. Several shallow depressions, known as ice cauldrons, formed around the caldera rim and on Dyngjujökull glacier above the dyke propagation path. The cauldrons range in volume from approximately 0.0003 km³ to 0.02 km³. Two types of melting were observed: high initial heat flux over a period of days which gradually disappears; and slower but more sustained melting rates. We present time series data of the development and evolution of these cauldrons, with estimates of the heat flux magnitudes involved.

The nature of the heat source required to generate these cauldrons is not obvious. Two scenarios are explored: 1) small subglacial eruptions; or 2) increased geothermal activity induced by the dyke intrusion. We investigate these scenarios using numerical modelling, considering the surface heat flux produced, and timescales and spatial extent of associated surface anomalies. It is found that a magmatic intrusion into rocks where the groundwater is near the boiling point curve can cause rapid increase in geothermal activity, but even a shallow intrusion into a cold groundwater reservoir will have a muted thermal response. Thus, our results indicate that minor subglacial eruptions are the most plausible explanation for the observed rapid melting far from known geothermal areas. These results have implications for the interpretation of thermal signals observed at ice-covered volcanoes, highlighting the importance of reservoir/bedrock thermal state prior to intrusion.