Short term prediction of dynamic hydra precipitation activity using a microwave radiometer over Eastern Himalaya, India

Abstract:

First ever study of the feasibility of ground based radiometric study to predict a very short term based rain precipitation study has been conducted in eastern Himalaya, Darjeeling (27.01°N, 88.15°E, 2200 masl). Short term prediction or nowcasting relates to forecasting convective precipitation for time periods less than a few hours to avoid its effect on agriculture, aviation and lifestyle. Theoretical models involving radiometric predictions are not well understood and lack in temporal and spatial resolution. In this study specific utilization of a microwave Radiometer (Radiometrics Corporation, USA) for online monitoring of precipitable rainfall activity has been observed repeatability of data has been established. Previous few studies have shown the increase of water vapour and corresponding Brightness Temperature, but in mountain climatic conditions over Darjeeling, due to presence of fog 90 % of the year, water vapour monitoring related predictions can lead to false alarms. The measurement of blackbody emission noise in the bands of 23.8 GHz and 31.4 GHz, using a quadratic regression retrieval algorithm is converted to atmospheric parameters like integrated water vapour and liquid water content. It has been found in our study that the liquid water shows significant activity prior to precipitation events even for mild and stratiform rainfall. The alarm can be generated well 20 mins before the commencement of actual rain events even in the upper atmosphere of 6 Kms, measured by a rain radar also operating in 24 Ghz microwave band. Although few rain events were found and reported which do not respond in the microwave liquid water channel. Efforts to identify such rain events and their possible explanation is going on and shall be reported in near future. Such studies are important to predict flash flooding in the Himalayas. Darjeeling owing to its geographical conditions experiences mild to very heavy rain. Such studies help improve aspects of Himalayas as well.