B23G-0679
Top-Down Assessment of the Asian Carbon Budget Since the Mid 1990s
Abstract:
Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is the principle driver of anthropogenic climate change. Asia is an important region for the global carbon budget, with four of the world’s ten largest national emitters of CO2, but it is also a region with considerable uncertainty in both anthropogenic emissions and land biosphere fluxes of CO2. Furthermore, Asia has undergone rapid economic growth over the past two decades, which has been associated with large increases in fossil fuel emissions, 190% for India and 240% for China between 1990 and 2010.We have used an ensemble of seven atmospheric CO2 inversions and three standard fossil fuel and cement fluxes, based on the inventories of CDIAC, EDGAR and IEA, to determine the land biosphere fluxes for East, South and Southeast Asia, and to ascertain the robustness and overall uncertainty of the results. We find that the East Asian land biosphere was on average a carbon sink of -0.35 ± 0.37 PgC y-1 (median and MAD), or equivalently 17 ± 18% of East Asia’s fossil fuel and cement emissions, over 1996 – 2012. Between 1996 – 2001 and 2008 – 2012, we find an increase in the sink of 0.74 ± 0.28 PgC y-1, however the magnitude of this is contingent on the assumed increase in fossil fuel emissions. For South Asia, we find that on average the land biosphere was close to carbon neutral, -0.01 ± 0.20 PgC y-1 over 1996 – 2012 and that there was no significant trend. For Southeast Asia, we find no evidence for a trend in the land biosphere flux over 1996 – 2012 and we cannot determine any difference from carbon neutrality (as assumed a priori by most inversions) with a flux of 0.06 ± 0.29 PgC y-1, throughout this period despite extensive tropical deforestation.